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YL Post-MIPIM Market Update 2024
YL Post-MIPIM Market Update 2024 recap
Prioritizing human- and community-centricity could give the real estate industry players a competitive edge in navigating through the fast and ever-changing currents of the Polish market. What other courses will the developers and investors chart to stay ahead in the age of uncertainties? ULI Poland’s annual “Game Changers in the Real Estate World” conference has once again uncovered unique, international insights about the forces transforming the future of various real estate sectors.
Celebrating an incredibly special occasion
This time of year usually prompts reflections about the future among Polish real estate, land use, and architecture professionals. They traditionally gather to anticipate and discuss upcoming market trends and network as well as exchange ideas with global experts at the annual ULI Poland’s “Game changers in the real estate world” conference. Hosted over two days at the historic Raffles Europejski Hotel in Warsaw on 17-18 April 2024, this year the event also marked the 10th anniversary of the Urban Land Institute’s presence in Poland.
In a special address at the opening night’s gala dinner, Marcin Juszczyk, Chair of ULI Poland, welcomed attendees with a tribute: “We think about ourselves as trailblazers of the real estate industry in Poland. We educate a young generation of leaders in our industry. We drive sustainable development. We foster innovation, collaboration, the exchange of ideas, and champion best market practices.” He also acknowledged the tireless efforts, dedication, and commitments of those who have contributed to the ULI’s success in Poland. Joining him on stage were his predecessors and ULI Poland co-creators: John Banka, Senior Director at ARC Capital Markets; Soren Olsen, Managing Director of Logicenters Poland at NREP; Dorota Wysokińska-Kuzdra, Senior Partner at Colliers; and Małgorzata Poręba, ULI Poland’s Senior Manager, all beaming with pride for the organisation’s great achievements.
More space for human connection
The enthusiastic feeling continued during the keynote speech by Howard Saunders, the UK-based retail futurist, and a writer, which followed. He ventured on the pressing question of whether the digitally dominated future would eradicate human touch from the real estate business. Contrary to current fears, the sector should not fret. What the rise of the digital world and tools, and especially the artificial intelligence, has really shown is that the customers crave authentic human-to-human connections. Retailers and developers, he argued, should prioritize investments in enhancing physical experiences over digital solutions, focusing on hospitality, place-making, and customer engagement. Building robust physical communities and fostering related loyalties, Saunders said, is where brands should look for profits. He emphasized that AI is poised to “make authentic human connection the most precious currency ever.”
Diving deeper into the investment potential
Turning to even more investment trends, consumers, and particularly their spending, were said to be in the centre of attention this and next year. This would be a key factor driving Poland’s economic recovery, said Dorota Strauch, CEE Lead and Head of Research at Raiffeisen Bank International, in her macroeconomic outlook. While Poland is experiencing “not a spectacular” recovery, the recent influx of the EU funds from the once frozen recovery and resilience plan promises a positive impact on Polish investments in 2024. David Inskip, EMEA Head of Research at CBRE Investment Management, echoed this optimism, highlighting that “the coming year or two will present attractive window of real estate investment opportunities in the CEE, especially for residential assets and ESG-compliant assets in all sectors.”
The study he presented showed that while cross-border capital flows in the CEE region experienced a downturn, economic improvement could reignite investor interest. Among the investors most likely to decrease allocations in the CEE were the largest institutions, potentially creating a room for first movers and more agile investors, he noticed. Notably, CEE-focused investors may find ESG-compliant assets more attractive now, as they tend to come with a smaller price premium than on the Western European markets. It seems like an era was over though. “Over the previous decade in the CEE we have seen an incredible boom in logistics. (…) I don’t think we will see a repeat of allocations we have seen there,” David Inskip said.
Opportunistic funds having their moment
The marginal share of domestic institutional capital and the withdrawal of global capital is quite a challenge for the Polish real estate investment market. However, such a situation is very attractive to investors from our European region. “This was very evident last year in particular. Somewhat simplistically, if it were not for the capital flowing from the countries of the region, which was responsible for most of the transactions on the Vistula, the investment market would have almost frozen for good ,” emphasizes Dorota Wysokińska-Kuzdra, senior partner at Colliers.
Today’s market situation works in favour of the opportunistic transactions, and some of the Western funds already capitalize on it. “The fact that existing players are no longer active is an opportunity for us, but when we make new investments, we always think about the exit horizon. We cannot rely on local capital for the time being, so market liquidity is very important to us. The Polish market has very good macroeconomic fundamentals and has proven its investment attractiveness over the past decade,” said Colman McCarthy, Partner at Signal Capital Partners. “We have recently invested and committed approximately €120 million and have an appetite for more. One of the things we are doing is creating a platform of dormitories with local partners. We are also involved in good projects that have liquidity issues as a common denominator. The residential sector remains our focus because of its strong fundamentals, and there are all sorts of opportunistic investment opportunities with good fundamentals,” McCarthy added.
Among the active players in the Polish investment market are investors from the Baltic States. “Poland currently offers attractive investment opportunities and the chance for organic growth to mid-sized buyers. As a regional investor, we benefit from the fact that Western capital is much less active. Like any investor, we are interested in the right choice and the best possible time to invest. We are currently in a buyer’s market and are acquiring properties here at very attractive return parameters,” says Paulius Stulgaitis, Chief Investment Officer at Lithuania’s Eika Asset Management.
In addition to Baltic investors looking for opportunities in Poland, companies from the Czech Republic are also very active. “Czech funds are usually interested in buying individual properties. They invest a dozen, several dozen to maybe 100 million euros, and often in the office market, which is broader and larger in Poland than in the Czech Republic. In addition, yields on Polish real estate are 150-200 basis points higher than in the Czech Republic, which attracts funds whose shareholders are looking for double-digit returns. There is enough attractive real estate in Poland, and if investors can’t find attractive opportunities in Warsaw, they will find them in Gdansk or other regional cities,” says Radek Kucera, founder and managing partner of Grafton Property Partners and the founding partner of ULI Czech Republic.
Generating real value in business
Later, Antony Slumbers, an advisor and writer on proptech and space-as-a-service, stressed the necessity for real estate businesses to embrace human-centricity in the future. The revolutionizing concept assumes the use of advanced technologies to meet fundamental needs of people through prioritizing such aspects of real estate assets as health and well-being, ergonomics and comfort, technology integration, community and connectivity, flexibility and adaptability, and sustainability. According to his predictions, the most successful companies of the future are going to be “both deeply technical and deeply human centric,” while people’s responsibilities will lie in insightfully prompting AI, creating and curating machines, generating emotionally resonant user experiences, and ethical principles to navigate the technology. Meanwhile, the automation of processes will get coupled with even deeper understanding of human needs.
“You have to be agile” in the decarbonization era
Olivia O’Brien, Research Director at ULI Europe, on secondment from Longevity Partners, provided an update on ULI CChange, the decarbonization-focused program, emphasizing accelerated progress towards a carbon-neutral future through more collaborative action. Next, the “The Case for Decarbonizing Real Estate” presentation by Elisabeth Herman Frederiksen, Head of Sustainability at Urban Partners, offered the audience a number of practical inspirations and insights. “The mindset of being a progressive designer is reactive accounting. A lot of ESG focuses on compliance, documents, but this should not overshadow impact. Focusing on impact comes from early-stage decisions,” she said. “When you start thinking and designing, and I am sure AI will help us with this, you can stimulate a lot on the table that is relatively free of cost.”
Afterwards, in a discussion session moderated by Izabela Makowska-Kwiecińska, Associate Director of Strategic Advisory, ESG, at Colliers, participants touched upon a few ESG-related topics, including their cooperation with financiers, and in-house capacity- and culture-building. “Banks are now coming to the realization that impact metrics are important also for their lending risk profiles. (…) We are seeing a phase where banks try to understand real estate also in the metric lens,” Elisabeth Herman Frederiksen noticed. “ESG is a part of our business now, we have no other choice. (…) As we plan and continue to prepare succeeding ESG reports, we hope that the process will become a habit in the future, and it will be an obvious thing to do regardless of the deadline for its preparation,” commented Jarosław Fiutowski, Board Member at Ghelamco Poland.
“The major innovation in ESG building projects is the way of thinking and adding this new dimension to the construction,” shared Adam Targowski, Group Head of ESG Management at CTP Invest. “When it comes to the building’s operational carbon footprint, a lot can be done. But when it comes to the embodied carbon footprint, we do not have all the needed tools yet,” he added.
Message to and from the younger
In an energizing but thoughtful panel discussion “From X to Z: How we live, work, and connect across generations” that followed, moderator Ariana Maaß of Berlin Hyp engaged a lively debate on the future of workplaces, home-office, well-being, work relations and flexibility. Participants in the discussion included representatives of all the generations currently working in the workforce: John Banka, Senior Director at ARC Capital Markets; Anna Szelc, Senior Director of Investments at Invesco Real Estate; Patryk Czarnocki, Trainee, Office Agency, Colliers; and Aleksandra Musik, Leasing Coordinator, 7R. “We are the first generation that sets boundaries,” Aleksandra Musik, noticed explaining the importance of work-life balance to the younger generations of employees. According to Anna Szelc, Investments Senior Director at Invesco Real Estate, companies should not take their sights from intergenerational communication and constant learning, de-learning, and re-learning: “We have to both learn from the Gen Z and show them the way.”
Public-private collaboration needs mutual trust
In the next segment, a unique view at the prerequisites for a game changing culture in the urban and city development settings was shared in an engaging presentation of Maria Vassilakou from Vienna Solutions, and a former Deputy Mayor of Vienna. She displayed a myriad of real life, innovative and inclusive city solutions worth recreating, including multigenerational developments. She also emphasized the necessity for polycentric city development, advocating for the creation of well-connected, local centres in every neighbourhood, complemented by green public spaces, as well as the importance of neighbourhood level works for decarbonization efforts. It turns out that more and more real estate businesses recognize and benefit from the value of such approaches, as they increasingly co-facilitate and co-fund city transformations, in Austria and beyond.
Destination: facilitation and adaptation
The following panel discussion, moderated by Andrei Martin, Partner at PLP Architects, focused on the factors facilitating the change making impact. According to Nicklas Lindberg, CEO of Echo Investment, there has been a significant change in the business focus: in just eight years his company’s development portfolio transitioned from 75% projects in the commercial sector to 75% projects in the residential sector, which proved the importance of adapting to emerging trends and fast-changing markets. The developer’s interest now predominantly lies in destination projects. One such example is the currently developed Towarowa 22 mixed-use revitalization project featuring a 2-ha city park and grounds accessible to the public. Ventures of such kind require building community and municipal relations to better contribute to the future of all stakeholders. “You need to have good cooperation with cities, you need to have a dialogue and understand each others’ needs,” he said.
This resonated with the perspective of Monika Konrad, Deputy Director of the Architecture & Spatial Planning Department at the City of Warsaw, who talked about the city’s strategies for collaborating with developers. She stressed the significance of upcoming legislation in bolstering such partnerships, particularly through the implementation of integrated investment plans which would soon enable the private sector to play a more active role in financing public investments. She also drew attention to the role of such partnerships in driving sustainability. “We must get prepared for climate change, both in mitigation and adaptation, and there is an enormous potential to do that in Warsaw. One of the greatest potentials can be found in transforming brownfields,” she said. “We are now also working on our own green building standards. First, we will release one for municipal green buildings, and later we will work on standards for developers. (…) We also need to give people an opportunity to redevelop their housing in a way that decreases the energy costs.”
In a brief speech, Patrick Canagasingham, Global COO of Habitat for Humanity International, shed more light on the sobering realities of the global housing crisis, which the organization addresses. A staggering 2.8 bln people live in inadequate conditions, including 1.1 bln in slum conditions, while over 300 mln stay homeless. He urged for a shift in perspective and emphasized the role of climate change and the marginalized position of women in exacerbating the crisis, calling for more meaningful actions.
Future-ready conversions and conversations
Could architects and designers become the catalysts for the global change making? They certainly should! In his closing keynote speech, focused on the forward-looking moves, Lukasz Platkowski, Managing Director at Gensler, outlined a number of new opportunities for today’s building sector that stemmed from the trend shifts spotted by the company’s experts worldwide. Those included more human connected experiences and more immersive, mixed-use designs, the evolution of workplaces into more compelling mixed-use destinations, as well the revival of stranded assets. He illustrated them with the example of Warsaw’s Służewiec district: “People travel all the way from there to the Wola district, where the mixed-use destinations are.” According to Platkowski, the novel approaches bear an enormous opportunity to decrease high vacancy rates in Europe and Poland. “Even governments offer incentives to do change the building’s use, although permitting keeps being difficult, and it is always challenging in such cases,” he said. Other shared trends included the creation of age-inclusive communities and lifetime designs, the buildings that actively give back to nature, and the design process that employs digital twins.
In the concluding remarks, ULI Poland extended their gratitude to all esteemed guests, speakers, and participants, from near and far, for providing such invaluable and diverse insights. This year’s conference might be over, but your inspiring exchanges, discussions, presentations, and network connections will live on, hopefully leading to better and fully mapped out future for real estate and urban and land planning professionals across both private and public sector in Poland.
Thank you to the Conference Sponsors, Partners and Patrons for their support! And see you next year!
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